Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has just released its Housing Market Outlook for the first quarter of 2012 – and it is slightly more optimistic than its forecast late last year. 2012 will still see 10,300 housing starts in Calgary, the same as its initial forecast, but the total MLS sales will be stronger than originally forecast – inching up by 300 resale units to end up at 23,000 by year end. The average price of those homes will go down $2,000 from its original projection, CMHC reports, ending at $409,000 for this year.

Next year will see stronger housing starts, albeit still below the more than 11,000 starts in every year except the previous three since the start of the millennium. CMHC is calling for an increase of 400 units from this year’s projection for a total of 10,700 units for Calgary and area in 2013. Resale homes should increase as well, up 700 units to a total of 23,700 for next year, with the average price up to $420,000.

The forecast holds true for most of the Prairie region. Across Alberta, CMHC expects 29,100 starts this year and 30,000 next year. Resale sales should reach 54,650 this year and 56,550 next.

“Employment opportunities in the Prairies will continue to draw migrants, supporting new housing demand,” says Lai Sing Louie, CMHC’s regional economist for the Prairie and Territories Region.

Across the province, single-detached starts are projected to rise 14 per cent to 17,300 units this year – but that will decrease to an increase of just four per cent the following year, says the report. “In 2013, price gains and modestly higher mortgage rates will increase monthly carrying costs. Builders will thus align new construction to presales to keep inventory low.”

Multi-family starts in Alberta will continue to rise over the forecast period, CMHC says. “Production in 2012 is projected to increase by 12 per cent over 2011 activity to 11,800 units, and then level at 12,000 units in 2013.”